The National Bank of Georgia decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25 percent

Headline inflation reached 5.6% in September 2026 against a 3% target, with roughly two percentage points directly attributable to energy. Crucially, core (3.5%) and services (3.7%) inflation remain below headline, suggesting inflation expectations are still broadly anchored — but the NBG has flagged this as a live risk given the duration of the shock, and has lifted its 2026 central forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%. For compliance and treasury teams at firms with Georgian, Caucasus or broader emerging-market exposure, this signals a 'higher-for-longer' local rate environment with continued lari volatility risk.

Expect persistent pressure on borrower affordability, collateral valuations and credit-loss assumptions in locally booked loan books, and continued relevance of interest-rate risk disclosures. Recommended actions: (1) refresh country risk and counterparty assessments for Georgian exposures; (2) stress-test FX and rate sensitivity in EM portfolios and trade finance facilities; (3) review hedging strategies against a prolonged tight policy stance; (4) confirm scenario narratives in ICAAP/ORSA and market-risk reporting reflect extended supply-side shocks; (5) monitor the NBG's communications for the timing of any pivot, which would be the material trigger for re-pricing.