26-261MR ASIC statement – Prediction markets

This is a supervisory risk signal rather than a final prohibition, but firms should treat it as a material constraint on product strategy, licensing and distribution. Compliance teams should inventory any prediction-market, event-contract or similar derivative exposure to Australian retail clients; reassess licensing permissions and product classification; review target market, product governance and consumer-outcome assessments; and scrutinise marketing and financial-promotion materials for misleading or harm-inducing claims. Retail launches or expansions should be paused or escalated pending greater clarity.

UK and global firms with Australian retail distribution, white-label platforms or cross-border product models should assess whether local permissions and group product approvals remain supportable. Expected actions include legal and compliance sign-off, board or risk-committee reporting, enhanced monitoring of ASIC follow-up, and a documented public-interest and consumer-harm assessment. The statement also creates opportunities for compliance-by-design tools, wholesale-only models and clearer client education, while raising competitive risk for firms that cannot evidence consumer protections.